Who Really Commits New Sex Crimes?

   In the recent months there have been a number of articles and news sources about politicians and other prominent people involved in sex crimes.  There have also been a significant number involving police officers. This study will focus in part on the offense rate for police officers in comparison to other persons, it will also take a look at the re-offense rate for people on the registry. The Urbana-Champaign Independent Media Center released the following:

www.ucimc.org/content/national-police-misconduct-statistics-released

also see  http://www.policemisconduct.net/2010-q3-national-police-misconduct-statistical-report/

Working with those numbers, according to the referenced link:
0.08% (1 in 116) officers are cited for misconduct, 13% of those are sex offenses/ sex related.
800,000 estimated police officers in the US (that’s one per RSO!)
Now let’s crunch some numbers… that makes ~ 6,873 instances of officer misconduct in a 6 month period of which 13% are sex related offenses giving us a grand total of….893 sex offenses committed by police officers during a six month period from April to Sept 2009 or nearly 18 per state! Estimating for the year that would be 1786 sex related offenses for police officers of the 63,000 reported new sex offenses.

That would make about 3% of all new sex offenses are committed by police (1786/63000).
Police officers make up 0.3% of the population in the US (800,000/311,745,000).
Police commit one sex offense per 1,000 officers according to the numbers.
strangers commit less than 2% of all sex offenses. Police officers commit ~3%!

Trying to crunch realistic numbers for sex offenses by profession. Now, according to the AP, only 500 teachers were arrested as sex offenders out of 3.5 million teachers, which makes 0.014% of teachers which committed sex offenses or 0.7% of all new sex offenses were committed by teachers. The latest search was for clergy sex offenders since such a big deal is made about that. The only number we have found that’s recent (2009) is 215 victims of sex offenses by clergy.

   Oh yes not forgetting to add in the re-offense rate for people on the registry for new sex crimes The June 2002: Department of Justice: Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994 (DOJ-2002) crime from 1994-1997. (DOJ-2002 page 5) it is known that during that time period (1994-1997): Of the released sex offenders 3.5% (339) Were reconvicted for a sex crime over a Three year period So for one year average there was 113 RECONVICTED for a new sex offense. (DOJ-2003[p2]). Now for the (reality) plug-in (113/63000) you get 0.17% Or basically less then 2/10 of 1%. According to the Department of Justice, most child sexual abuse victims are molested by family members (34%) or close acquaintances (59%)  totaling 93% of new sex crimes (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2000).
Here’s the breakdown thus far, in the Percentage of new sex crimes
Close acquaintances (59%)
Family members (34%)
Police officers 3.0%
Teachers 00.7%
Clergy 00.3%
strangers 2% those who have not been convicted of a sex crime (note: this could include somebody that was met at a party or a street dance and does not necessarily mean an adult)
People on the registry/previously convicted 00.17%. that is 17/100s of 1%.

Now remember police officers teachers and clergy can also fall under family members and close acquaintances and there is not a breakdown for every type of professional that is out there. There are many more professions that have these types of crimes such as Coaches, doctors, psychiatrists, therapists and bus drivers just to mention a few.  People which are on the registry are a locked out group and it makes no difference what profession they fall under quite obviously if a person is convicted of a sex-related crime then they are not going to be a police officer, a teacher and probably not a clergy.

Teachers, Clergy and people on the registry commit fewer New sex offenses than the protectors of society, our diligent law enforcement officers. From this information it would seem that one of the most single trusted segments of our society, police officers: are over 14 times more likely to be involved in a new sex crime than people on the registry and teachers are over 3 times likely, followed by clergy which are twice as likely. Maybe before a police officer applies for a position they should be required a sexual Predator evaluation?

Before going any further lets examine the overall recidivism rates for convicted offenders. The Bureau of Justice Statistics conducted the largest recidivism study ever conducted in the United States, tracking prisoners from 15 states. This report examined inmates released from state prisons in 1994 and found that 67% of them were arrested for at least one serious new crime within the first 3 years after release, and fifty-two percent of them were re-convicted of a new crime. The highest rates of recidivism (re-arrest) were for crimes involving stealing: larceny (75%), burglary (74%), robbery (70%), possessing of selling stolen property (77%) and stealing motor vehicles (79%). Trafficking in illegal weapons was also high at 70%. Recidivism for driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs was 51% and homicide was 41%. In this study, the recidivism rate for rape was 46% and for sexual assault was 41%. Apparently these sex crimes were committed by ex-convicts who had not formerly been convicted of a sex crime, because the same report goes on to say that “within 3 years following their release only 3.5% were reconvicted for another sex crime“ and only 2% of the rapists were arrested for another rape within the 3-year study period. Therefore of the 46% of ex-convicts who were re-arrested for rape 44% must NOT have been previously convicted of a sex crime but of another type of crime.

The study involved 272,111 inmates. In this study, there were 27 times more non-sex offender ex-convicts than there were released sex-offenders. The ex-convicts who were not sex offenders actually committed 7 times more NEW sex crimes than did the released sex offenders. This study showed that 87% of new sex crimes in this study were committed by ex-convicts, NOT by registered citizens (USDOJ 2003.)
This study looked at only individuals who have a prior criminal record. When one considers that most sex offenses are committed by those who have no prior criminal record, it is easy to see that the vast majority of new sex crimes are committed by someone other than a registered citizens. (USDOJ 1994)

All these numbers and statistics tend to confuse folks and I recognize there are
people who will refuse to believe them at all. So, lets bring this into perspective. The June 2002: Department of Justice: Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994 (DOJ-2002) mentioned something most folks have overlooked, and we quote: The fraction of all crimes that released prisoners accounted for was 4.7%: The study (DOJ-2002) cannot measure precisely what fraction of all crimes the former prisoners were responsible for during the 3 years following their release. The closest measure is the fraction of all arrests for the seven serious crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft). The number of “arrests” is not the number of “arrest charges” (meaning a person can be charged with multiple crimes) but the number of different days on which a person was arrested. In 13 states (because of missing data Florida and Illinois could not be in this analysis) from 1994 to 1997, 234,358 released prisoners accounted for 140,534 arrests (table 5). During the period in the 13 states, 2,994,868 adults were arrested for the 7 serious crimes according to the FBI.

Therefore, REARRESTS of the released prisoners were 4.7% of all arrests for serious crime from 1994-1997.” (DOJ-2002 page 5) Let us try to understand what this is saying, 95.3% of all serious crime was committed by who? New Criminals, not recidivists! Yes, we must acknowledge that, it is possible that some of those “new criminals” had records which go back many years. Like the study said, they cannot be precise! However it is known that during that time period (1994-1997): OF THE RELEASED SEX OFFENDER 24% (2,326)  RECONVICTED for non-sex offenses(most were related to the strict conditions that registered citizens are forced to live under), and, 3.5% (339) were RECONVICTED for a sex offense. (DOJ-2003[p2]).

Finally, remember that 04.7% above, well what percentage of those folks are actually RECONVICTED sex offenders? 2,326 + 339 = 2,665 or .08898%. Therefore, RECONVICTION of the released sex offender prisoners was .08898% of all arrests for serious crime and 00.0001% or 1/10,000 of 1% for a new sex crime from 1994-1997. By the Department of Justice: Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994(DOJ-2002)REPORT. HIGH RECIDIVISM?????

From the data so far, another way to look at it is if a child is molested the chance that is done by a previous convicted sex offender is around one-ten thousandths (1/10,000) of 1% and the possibility that it is done a friend, family member, or a person in a trust position (teacher, principle, coach, police, therapists, etc.) or a person that has not been caught and is not on the registry is 99.9998%

In a recent story done by Rutgers news service:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/20/us-army-health-report-idUSTRE80J01C20120120

It was pointed out that US soldiers crimes in the community have almost doubled over the last five years. In just a year of 2011 there were 2811 violent felonies committed by soldiers returning from combat. Of those the top five violent felonies committed by soldiers were aggravated assault, rape, aggravated sexual assault, forcible sodomy and child pornography as well as a high percentage of domestic violence against their spouses and their children when you take into account the fact that there were probably only 300 new sex crimes committed by people on the national sex offender registry In that given year the number of crimes and types of crimes committed by soldiers returning from combat is staggering.

Data collected from the Nebraska state patrol registry
NOTE: in the first line of the table 1971 through 1994 , covers a 23 year span, averaging out the 5% for a yearly average. It end up with 2/10 of 1% per year re-offense rate.

This data clearly shows that 99%+ of the people on the registry. Do not reoffend
In 16 years the registry has increased in size 776% .
While In 40 years only .00.002% per year of the people listed on the registry reoffended.

year

re-offense

Not reoffending

re-offense % per Year

Single offense

Tab 1

Indeterminate Tab 2

Multiple offenses

Tab 3

Added per year

Total on Registry

Registry increase %

1971-1994

29

457

5%

307

11

168

N/A

486

Base Year

1995

11

556

1%

67

1

13

81

567

16%

1996

7

664

1%

88

2

14

104

671

18%

1997

16

789

1%

99

2

33

134

805

19%

1998

13

965

1%

152

2

19

173

978

20%

1999

15

1136

1%

156

3

14

173

1151

15%

2000

16

1326

1%

187

1

13

191

1342

14%

2001

10

1531

00.6%

190

0

9

199

1541

12%

2002

25

1706

1%

171

4

15

190

1731

12%

2003

18

1931

1%

211

1

6

218

1949

12%

2004

24

2129

1%

196

2

6

204

2153

10%

2005

15

2426

00.6%

209

9

10

228

2441

10%

2006

14

2636

00.5%

202

3

4

209

2650

8%

2007

27

2808

00.9%

177

3

5

185

2835

7%

2008

23

3009

00.7%

189

3

5

197

3032

7%

2009

18

3230

00.5%

211

2

3

216

3248

7%

2010

20

3526

00.5%

295

3

2

300

3546

9%

2011

32

3742

00.8%

220

6

0

226

3774

6%

TOTAL

333

34567

00.002%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3774

94 to 2011

776%

NOTE: the reason for using yearly re-offense rate percentages is the fact that the registry is very fluid with people being added monthly and in some cases people being removed, monthly. Also note, many studies take a look at the total number of people that reoffend over a multiple year span. Without taking into account the number of people who do not reoffend over that same multiple year span. The number of people in Nebraska that after having been convicted of one sex crime committed another years later total 333 over a 40 year time span. Balancing the equation requires that you also add up all the people that did not reoffend over that 40 year time period. That comes to 34,567 people and that gives you a total re-offense rate of 9/10 of 1 % or a yearly re-offense rate of people on the registry of 2/1000 of 1%.

A number of Ohio studies were looked at to find out exactly how many people on the registry in the state of Ohio were reconvicted for additional sex crimes and it was found that in any given year of the ten-year study that the highest percentage of people on the registry that were involved in new sex crime was around 3/10 of 1% and got down to as low as 4/100 of one percent.

YEAR

One

Two

Three

Four

Five

Six

Seven

Eight

Nine

Ten

Total

Number on registry

21750

21687

21617

21684

21569

21556

21545

21529

21517

21513

NA

Number not Reoffending

21686

21617

21584

21569

21556

21545

21529

21517

21513

21511

215627

Number Reoffending

64

69

33

15

13

11

16

12

4

2

239

Not Reoffending %

99.71%

99.69%

99.85%

99.94%

99.94%

99.95%

99.93%

99.95%

99.99%

99.996%

99.99%

Reoffnneding %

0.29%

0.31%

0.15%

0.06%

0.06%

0.05%

0.07%

0.05%

0.01%

0.004%

00.01%

Note: Re-offenses in one year, there are more RSO registered than shown above. This data is only for the last ten years (2000-2010). Ohio has been had the registry since 1996. The extra four to five years. There is nearly an additional 5000 RSOs who have been on the registry from 10 to 15 years. They only add about 1 re-offense a year at the most. The re-offense rates for each year after released is based form the information found in ODRC Ten-Year Recidivism Follow-Up Of 1989 Sex Offenders Releases ; By Paul Konicek Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections, Office of Policy, Bureau of Planning and Evaluation;

Re-offense time frames
data collected from the Nebraska state patrol registry
this data indicates the length of time from the first conviction to a second conviction
the numbers in the 1 to 5 year range and may be disproportionately high because some
convictions may be from the same crime spree. But prosecuted at a later time thereby
may not be considered a re-offense after intervention of first conviction.

Re-offend after years re-offenders in prison re-offenders out of prison re-offenders total
1 to 5 years 52 49 101
5 to 10 years 39 56 95
10 to 15 years 44 29 73
15 to 20years 22 21 43
After 20 years 15 6 21
Total percentages 45% 55% 100%

At the time of this study there were 3774 people on the Nebraska registry

Re-offend in time span of Number in prison Number out of prison Total reoffending for time span Yearly % of people on registry that reoffend in time span
1 to 5 years 52 49 101 00.4% or 4/10 of one percent
5 to 10 years 39 56 95 00.4% or 4/10 of one percent
10 to 15 years 44 29 73 00.2% or 2/10 of one percent
15 to 20 years 22 21 43 00.2% or 2/10 of one percent
20 to 50 years 15 6 21 00.02% or 2/100 of one percent
Total 1 to 50 years 172 161 333 00.17% or 17/100 of one percent

Many people want to refer to the Department of Justice study done on the 1994 released prisoners. Everybody from both sides of the argument points to this one and the fact that 3.5% of RSOs are reconvicted of a new sex crime. Note that that is only for 15 states and during the three year follow-up period there were 339 new convictions for RSOs and that averages out to 113 per year. How many people are on the registry for those 15 states? And what happens if we put the number of 113 per year into the equation? Arizona 14512, Maryland 7269, North Carolina 13554, California 106216, Michigan 47329, Ohio 19448, Delaware 4488, Minnesota 1611, Oregon 23698, Florida 55999, New Jersey 14013, Texas 66587, Illinois 21297, New York 32257, Virginia 18131, Total 460,909, making up about 2/3 of the total registry
460,909/113 = 00.0245% = 2/100 of 1 percent So of the total number of people on the registry In those 15 states 2/100 of one percent Were reconvicted in a new sex crime

There have been put forth a couple of different recidivism rates for people on the registry, both very very small but the most important one is yet to be looked at, and that is how many people on the registry are reconvicted of a new sex crime per year, and as far as the recidivism rate for sex offenders are concerned there are around 750,000 people on the registry at the present time. According to the Department of Justice: Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994 (DOJ-2002) for the 15 reporting states there were 339 new convictions for people on the registry over a three year period and that averages out to 113 per year and that figures out to an average of 7.5 per state or 377 repeat sex offenses per year for the entire United States, doing the numbers 750,000/377= 00.0005%. That is to say of people on the regestrys re-offenses rate is 5/10,000 of one percent per year or another way to put it is the percentage of people on the registry who do not reoffend is 99.9995%

Where is the high recidivism rate that everyone talks about, There is no empirical data to justify the registration and notification laws. With this information I think that the point has been made!!

1 comment for “Who Really Commits New Sex Crimes?

  1. In Search of Liberty
    June 21, 2017 at 12:45 pm

    Yes, these factual statistics are all well and good; however, people who are proponents of sex offender (SO) laws operate at low earth orbit—from a purely EMOTIONAL state of mind; therefore, facts and figures and statistical evidence presented in this article or any type research paper don’t mean, as my grand mother used to say, a hill of beans. Proponents of SO laws’s brain can’t even comprehend such things. Even a residivism rate of negative 0.00000001% would be, to quote Justice Kennedy, “Frightening and High” to them. Ask one, I’ll make 3-1 odds it would. So what you have here basically are a bunch of people who need to hate someone, anyone. It used to be drug dealers, hence the war on drugs, then it was drunk drivers, hence the war drunk drivers, now sex offenders which is now the GOLD STANDARD for hate groups, hence world war III on people who have committed sex crimes. Realistically, you can’t get any better than this for hate groups. They have reached the pinnacle, the summit, there is no higher group to revile, hate, restrict, deny, shame, disenfranchise, and seek vengeance upon. So lets wait and see what their sadistic little minds can come up with, or the next phase of their attack. So I will tell you this, if SCOTUS overturns the 6th Circuit’s decision in Does v. Snyder, all hell is going to break loose in state legislatures just like after SCOTUS’s ruling in Smith v Doe (2003) gave state legislatures the green light to enact all manner of SO laws, e.g., residency restrictions (banishment), travel restrictions, job restrictions, place restrictions, GPS monitoring, internet restrictions, you name they came up with it. So what do you think the next iteration of these laws will be if SCOTUS overturns Does v Snyder? I would not at all be surprised if we see some states like LA, GA, FL, NC, AL, TX (the old confederate states) put up Nazi style concentration camps!Think about it. Where else can they go with these laws? think about ladies and gentlemen.

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